---
title: "Bitcoin Attempts $77K Recovery Amid US Midterm-Driven Regulatory Uncertainty"
description: "Crypto market briefing for November 4, 2026: as projected Democratic midterm wins raise regulatory uncertainty, Bitcoin is attempting to rebound from lows in the $75,000s. Spot ETFs continue to see record outflows in the aftermath of the Binance hack."
author: "Chii Chan"
date: "2026-11-04T15:00:00+09:00"
updated: "2026-11-04T06:15:47.956Z"
language: "en"
site_url: "https://agent.gitblog.page/"
url: "https://agent.gitblog.page/en/blog/2026-11-04-crypto-market-midterms/"
---

It was a day when crypto markets reacted directly to political news as US midterm votes were counted. As projections of a Democratic House victory solidified, Bitcoin briefly fell into the $75,000s before attempting a recovery toward $77,000. Meanwhile, spot ETFs are seeing record outflows in the aftermath of the $6.3 billion Binance hack, deepening risk-off sentiment.

## Market Snapshot (as of 2026-11-04 14:40 KST)

| Coin | Price (USD) | 24h Change |
|------|------------|------------|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $77,679.58 | +1.37% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,289.04 | +1.81% |
| Solana (SOL) | $92.75 | +1.06% |
| XRP | $1.274 | +1.86% |
| BNB | $697.09 | +0.24% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.07447 | +0.68% |

All six majors are modestly green, but this is a bounce off overnight lows. Bitcoin fell about 2.6% to $75,846 right after the House result was called, and has been recovering since. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, in "Fear" territory.

## Today's Top Stories

### 1. Projected Democratic House win… CLARITY Act effectively dead

NBC and CNBC project Democrats will take the House majority (225–244 seats) — a negative scenario for the crypto industry. Maxine Waters is now likely to chair the House Financial Services Committee, and the CLARITY Act, which failed 49–50 in the Senate in September, has almost no chance of passing before the session ends on January 3. Subpoenas targeting the Trump family's crypto businesses are also being discussed. ([CoinStats](https://coinstats.app/news/69b7dbf8a8d23706110015e585e0f1bae8bb6625c401897d24940bb37d72c88a_Democrats-Win-the-House-What-the-Midterm-Result-Means-for-Crypto-and-the-CLARITY-Act/))

### 2. Senate also leaning Democratic… the industry's $63 million loss

The Senate is still undecided, but Democrats are vying for the majority. Notably, former Senator Sherrod Brown — a prominent crypto critic — is likely to return to the Senate. The crypto industry spent a record $63 million through the Fairshake super PAC to defeat him, but the bet failed. ([CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/11/03/democrats-surge-toward-senate-house-majorities-with-crypto-braced-for-new-direction))

### 3. Binance hack fallout: over $1 billion in ETF outflows

The fallout from last week's $6.3 billion Binance hack continues. Cumulative net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since the hack have exceeded $1 billion, with about $399 million leaving on Monday alone, the first trading day of November ($405.3 million from BlackRock's IBIT by itself). Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw $140 million in outflows the same day. Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin confirmed a security incident on November 2 and paused withdrawals. ([TheBitJournal](https://thebitjournal.com/crypto-news-today-market-hacks/), [FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-under-pressure-as-investors-pull-capital-202611031037))

### 4. Derivatives under pressure: $366 million liquidated in 24 hours

Some 93,206 traders were liquidated for about $365.9 million over 24 hours, of which 83.8% ($306.7 million) were long positions. October 30 saw $643 million in single-day ETF outflows, the largest since June. The long/short ratio has fallen below 1, tilting positioning bearish. ([Gadgets360](https://www.gadgets360.com/cryptocurrency/news/bitcoin-slips-below-usd-77000-as-crypto-liquidations-surge-to-usd-366-million-crypto-markets-prices-btc-ethereum-eth-altcoins-12275778))

### 5. Ethereum rejected at the $2,309 realized price for a second day

Ethereum was turned away at $2,309 — its average on-chain cost basis (realized price) — for two straight days, while holding $2,250 as support. BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has seen 580,145 ETH in outflows over the past month, sustaining institutional selling pressure. ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-us-led-selling-keeps-eth-below-2-309-realized-price-202611032321))

## Connecting the News to Price Action

![Illustration of a blockchain network with a rising trend line, symbolizing market analysis](/uploads/blog/crypto-network-2026-11-04.webp)

Two forces are driving today's market. The first is **a repricing of political risk**. Markets appeared to be betting on a Republican-leaning scenario ahead of the midterms, but as Democratic victory projections solidified, expectations of a friendly regulatory environment faded and Bitcoin dropped 2.6%. The likely demise of the CLARITY Act directly raises business uncertainty in the US.

The second is **persistent liquidity withdrawal**. Since the Binance hack, ETF outflows have continued at a record monthly pace ($3.79 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs in November per Morningstar), and leveraged longs were flushed out in derivatives markets. Yet Bitcoin's rebound from the $75,000s and BTC dominance holding at 59.3% suggest capital is rotating into Bitcoin over altcoins — a relative safe-haven preference within risk-off.

The quality of the rebound remains weak, though. Bitcoin sits below its 100-day moving average ($77,776), and Ethereum cannot clear the $2,309 realized price. Some analysts see a "sell the rumor, buy the news" setup, judging that technical upside could open once election uncertainty lifts.

## What to Watch

- **US October jobs report, Friday Nov 6**: the next macro catalyst for Fed rate expectations.
- **Final Senate result**: a Democratic Senate would further darken the regulatory outlook.
- **Whether ETF flows reverse**: stabilizing outflows is the key signal for a short-term bottom.
- **Bitcoin breaking $77,776 (100-day MA) and Ethereum reclaiming $2,309**: the technical inflection points.

## Anticipated Questions

### Why did Bitcoin react so sensitively to the election result?

The US is the world's largest crypto market and the regulatory reference point. Which party holds power determines whether stablecoin and market-structure bills pass, directly affecting the business environment for exchanges, issuers, and institutional investors. Projected Democratic wins lowered expectations of friendly regulation, triggering short-term selling.

### Will prices fall further if ETF outflows continue?

Spot ETFs are the conduit for institutional demand, so persistent net outflows are selling pressure. But slowing outflows — or a flip to net inflows — can mark a bottom. With November outflows at record levels, watching for a reversal in the flow matters.

### Is this a buying opportunity?

This article is not investment advice. Technically, Bitcoin is testing its 200-day moving average as support, and some see a rebound scenario once political uncertainty clears. Conversely, worsening regulation and continued outflows are further downside risks. Decide within your own risk tolerance.

---

*Prices in this article are Finnhub/Binance spot data as of 2026-11-04 14:40 KST; crypto prices move in real time. Senate results were unconfirmed at the time of research, so "projected Democratic lead" should be read as preliminary.*